PLoS Medicine

Condividi contenuti PLOS Medicine: New Articles
A Peer-Reviewed Open-Access Journal
Aggiornato: 8 ore 5 min fa

Correction: Increased risk of ischemic heart disease, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes in women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus, a target group in general practice for preventive interventions: A population-based cohort study

Gi, 18/07/2019 - 23:00

by Barbara Daly, Konstantinos A. Toulis, Neil Thomas, Krishna Gokhale, James Martin, Jonathan Webber, Deepi Keerthy, Kate Jolly, Ponnusamy Saravanan, Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar

Correction: Discovery and validation of a prognostic proteomic signature for tuberculosis progression: A prospective cohort study

Gi, 18/07/2019 - 23:00

by Adam Penn-Nicholson, Thomas Hraha, Ethan G. Thompson, David Sterling, Stanley Kimbung Mbandi, Kirsten M. Wall, Michelle Fisher, Sara Suliman, Smitha Shankar, Willem A. Hanekom, Nebojsa Janjic, Mark Hatherill, Stefan H. E. Kaufmann, Jayne Sutherland, Gerhard Walzl, Mary Ann De Groote, Urs Ochsner, Daniel E. Zak, Thomas J. Scriba, ACS and GC6–74 cohort study groups

Correction: Socioeconomic position and use of healthcare in the last year of life: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Gi, 18/07/2019 - 23:00

by Joanna M. Davies, Katherine E. Sleeman, Javiera Leniz, Rebecca Wilson, Irene J. Higginson, Julia Verne, Matthew Maddocks, Fliss E. M. Murtagh

Operative versus non-operative treatment for 2-part proximal humerus fracture: A multicenter randomized controlled trial

Gi, 18/07/2019 - 23:00

by Antti P. Launonen, Bakir O. Sumrein, Aleksi Reito, Vesa Lepola, Juha Paloneva, Kenneth B. Jonsson, Olof Wolf, Peter Ström, Hans E. Berg, Li Felländer-Tsai, Karl-Åke Jansson, Daniel Fell, Inger Mechlenburg, Kaj Døssing, Helle Østergaard, Aare Märtson, Minna K. Laitinen, Ville M. Mattila, as the NITEP group

Background

Although increasingly used, the benefit of surgical treatment of displaced 2-part proximal humerus fractures has not been proven. This trial evaluates the clinical effectiveness of surgery with locking plate compared with non-operative treatment for these fractures.

Methods and findings

The NITEP group conducted a superiority, assessor-blinded, multicenter randomized trial in 6 hospitals in Finland, Estonia, Sweden, and Denmark. Eighty-eight patients aged 60 years or older with displaced (more than 1 cm or 45 degrees) 2-part surgical or anatomical neck proximal humerus fracture were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to undergo either operative treatment with a locking plate or non-operative treatment. The mean age of patients was 72 years in the non-operative group and 73 years in the operative group, with a female sex distribution of 95% and 87%, respectively. Patients were recruited between February 2011 and April 2016. The primary outcome measure was Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) score at 2-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes included Constant–Murley score, the visual analogue scale for pain, the quality of life questionnaire 15D, EuroQol Group’s 5-dimension self-reported questionnaire EQ-5D, the Oxford Shoulder Score, and complications. The mean DASH score (0 best, 100 worst) at 2 years was 18.5 points for the operative treatment group and 17.4 points for the non-operative group (mean difference 1.1 [95% CI −7.8 to 9.4], p = 0.81). At 2 years, there were no statistically or clinically significant between-group differences in any of the outcome measures. All 3 complications resulting in secondary surgery occurred in the operative group. The lack of blinding in patient-reported outcome assessment is a limitation of the study. Our assessor physiotherapists were, however, blinded.

Conclusions

This trial found no significant difference in clinical outcomes at 2 years between surgery and non-operative treatment in patients 60 years of age or older with displaced 2-part fractures of the proximal humerus. These results suggest that the current practice of performing surgery on the majority of displaced proximal 2-part fractures of the humerus in older adults may not be beneficial.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01246167.

Intranasal sufentanil versus intravenous morphine for acute severe trauma pain: A double-blind randomized non-inferiority study

Ma, 16/07/2019 - 23:00

by Marc Blancher, Maxime Maignan, Cyrielle Clapé, Jean-Louis Quesada, Roselyne Collomb-Muret, François Albasini, François-Xavier Ageron, Stephanie Fey, Audrey Wuyts, Jean-Jacques Banihachemi, Barthelemy Bertrand, Audrey Lehmann, Claire Bollart, Guillaume Debaty, Raphaël Briot, Damien Viglino

Background

Intravenous morphine (IVM) is the most common strong analgesic used in trauma, but is associated with a clear time limitation related to the need to obtain an access route. The intranasal (IN) route provides easy administration with a fast peak action time due to high vascularization and the absence of first-pass metabolism. We aimed to determine whether IN sufentanil (INS) for patients presenting to an emergency department with acute severe traumatic pain results in a reduction in pain intensity non-inferior to IVM.

Methods and findings

In a prospective, randomized, multicenter non-inferiority trial conducted in the emergency departments of 6 hospitals across France, patients were randomized 1:1 to INS titration (0.3 μg/kg and additional doses of 0.15 μg/kg at 10 minutes and 20 minutes if numerical pain rating scale [NRS] > 3) and intravenous placebo, or to IVM (0.1 mg/kg and additional doses of 0.05 mg/kg at 10 minutes and 20 minutes if NRS > 3) and IN placebo. Patients, clinical staff, and research staff were blinded to the treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was the total decrease on NRS at 30 minutes after first administration. The prespecified non-inferiority margin was −1.3 on the NRS. The primary outcome was analyzed per protocol. Adverse events were prospectively recorded during 4 hours. Among the 194 patients enrolled in the emergency department cohort between November 4, 2013, and April 10, 2016, 157 were randomized, and the protocol was correctly administered in 136 (69 IVM group, 67 INS group, per protocol population, 76% men, median age 40 [IQR 29 to 54] years). The mean difference between NRS at first administration and NRS at 30 minutes was −4.1 (97.5% CI −4.6 to −3.6) in the IVM group and −5.2 (97.5% CI −5.7 to −4.6) in the INS group. Non-inferiority was demonstrated (p < 0.001 with 1-sided mean-equivalence t test), as the lower 97.5% confidence interval of 0.29 (97.5% CI 0.29 to 1.93) was above the prespecified margin of −1.3. INS was superior to IVM (intention to treat analysis: p = 0.034), but without a clinically significant difference in mean NRS between groups. Six severe adverse events were observed in the INS group and 2 in the IVM group (number needed to harm: 17), including an apparent imbalance for hypoxemia (3 in the INS group versus 1 in the IVM group) and for bradypnea (2 in the INS group versus 0 in the IVM group). The main limitation of the study was that the choice of concomitant analgesics, when they were used, was left to the discretion of the physician in charge, and co-analgesia was more often used in the IVM group. Moreover, the size of the study did not allow us to conclude with certainty about the safety of INS in emergency settings.

Conclusions

We confirm the non-inferiority of INS compared to IVM for pain reduction at 30 minutes after administration in patients with severe traumatic pain presenting to an emergency department. The IN route, with no need to obtain a venous route, may allow early and effective analgesia in emergency settings and in difficult situations. Confirmation of the safety profile of INS will require further larger studies.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02095366.EudraCT 2013-001665-16.

A simple real-time model for predicting acute kidney injury in hospitalized patients in the US: A descriptive modeling study

Lu, 15/07/2019 - 23:00

by Michael Simonov, Ugochukwu Ugwuowo, Erica Moreira, Yu Yamamoto, Aditya Biswas, Melissa Martin, Jeffrey Testani, F. Perry Wilson

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an adverse event that carries significant morbidity. Given that interventions after AKI occurrence have poor performance, there is substantial interest in prediction of AKI prior to its diagnosis. However, integration of real-time prognostic modeling into the electronic health record (EHR) has been challenging, as complex models increase the risk of error and complicate deployment. Our goal in this study was to create an implementable predictive model to accurately predict AKI in hospitalized patients and could be easily integrated within an existing EHR system.

Methods and findings

We performed a retrospective analysis looking at data of 169,859 hospitalized adults admitted to one of three study hospitals in the United States (in New Haven and Bridgeport, Connecticut) from December 2012 to February 2016. Demographics, medical comorbidities, hospital procedures, medications, and laboratory data were used to develop a model to predict AKI within 24 hours of a given observation. Outcomes of AKI severity, requirement for renal replacement therapy, and mortality were also measured and predicted. Models were trained using discrete-time logistic regression in a subset of Hospital 1, internally validated in the remainder of Hospital 1, and externally validated in Hospital 2 and Hospital 3. Model performance was assessed via the area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The training set cohort contained 60,701 patients, and the internal validation set contained 30,599 patients. External validation data sets contained 43,534 and 35,025 patients. Patients in the overall cohort were generally older (median age ranging from 61 to 68 across hospitals); 44%–49% were male, 16%–20% were black, and 23%–29% were admitted to surgical wards. In the training set and external validation set, 19.1% and 18.9% of patients, respectively, developed AKI. The full model, including all covariates, had good ability to predict imminent AKI for the validation set, sustained AKI, dialysis, and death with AUCs of 0.74 (95% CI 0.73–0.74), 0.77 (95% CI 0.76–0.78), 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.85), and 0.69 (95% CI 0.67–0.72), respectively. A simple model using only readily available, time-updated laboratory values had very similar predictive performance to the complete model. The main limitation of this study is that it is observational in nature; thus, we are unable to conclude a causal relationship between covariates and AKI and do not provide an optimal treatment strategy for those predicted to develop AKI.

Conclusions

In this study, we observed that a simple model using readily available laboratory data could be developed to predict imminent AKI with good discrimination. This model may lend itself well to integration into the EHR without sacrificing the performance seen in more complex models.

Designing noninferiority tuberculosis treatment trials: Identifying practical advantages for drug regimens with acceptable effectiveness

Ve, 12/07/2019 - 23:00

by Piero L. Olliaro, Michel Vaillant

In this Collection Review for the Novel Treatments for Tuberculosis Collection, Piero Olliaro and Michael Vaillant discuss the considerations when choosing a non-inferiority margin that is meaningful from statistical, ethical, clinical, and health standpoint.

Accelerating the transition of new tuberculosis drug combinations from Phase II to Phase III trials: New technologies and innovative designs

Ma, 09/07/2019 - 23:00

by Geraint Davies, Martin Boeree, Dave Hermann, Michael Hoelscher

Geraint Davies and colleagues discuss the potential for innovative early-phase clinical trial methods and technologies to reduce risk and speed up drug development for tuberculosis.

Effect of a two-stage intervention package on the cesarean section rate in Guangzhou, China: A before-and-after study

Lu, 08/07/2019 - 23:00

by Xiaoyan Xia, Zehong Zhou, Songying Shen, Jinhua Lu, Lifang Zhang, Peiyuan Huang, Jia Yu, Li Yang, Ping Wang, Kin-bong Hubert Lam, Bo Jacobsson, Ben Willem Mol, Huimin Xia, Xiu Qiu

Background

The cesarean section (CS) rate has risen globally during the last two decades. Effective and feasible strategies are needed to reduce it. The aim of this study was to assess the CS rate change after a two-stage intervention package that was designed to reduce the overall CS rate in Guangzhou, China.

Methods and findings

This intervention package was implemented by the Health Commission of Guangzhou Municipality in 2 stages (October 2010–September 2014 and October 2014–December 2016) and included programs for population health education, skills training for healthcare professionals, equipment and technical support for local healthcare facilities, and capacity building for the maternal near-miss care system. A retrospective repeated cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate influences of the intervention on CS rates. A pre-intervention period from January 2008 to September 2010 served as the baseline. The primary outcome was the CS rate, and the secondary outcomes included maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and perinatal mortality rate (PMR), all obtained from the Guangzhou Perinatal Health Care and Delivery Surveillance System (GPHCDSS). The Cochran-Armitage test was used to examine the trends of the overall CS rate, MMR, and PMR across different stages. Segmented linear regression analysis was used to assess the change of the CS rate over the intervention period.A total of 1,921,932 records of births and 108 monthly CS rates from 2008 to 2016 were analyzed. The monthly CS rate declined across the intervention stages (Z = 75.067, p < 0.001), with an average rate of 42.4% at baseline, 39.8% at Stage 1, and 35.0% at Stage 2. The CS rate declined substantially among nulliparous women who delivered term singletons, with an accelerating decreasing trend observed across Stage 1 and Stage 2 (the difference in slopes: −0.09 [95% CI −0.16 to −0.02] between Stage 1 and baseline, p = 0.014; −0.11 [95% CI −0.20 to −0.02] between Stage 1 and Stage 2, p = 0.017). The CS rate in the remaining population increased during baseline and Stage 1 and subsequently decreased during Stage 2. The sensitivity analysis suggested no immediate impact of the universal two-child policy on the trend of the CS rate. The MMR (Z = −4.368, p < 0.001) and PMR (Z = −13.142, p < 0.001) declined by stage over the intervention period.One of the main limitations of the study is the lack of a parallel control group. Moreover, the influence of temporal changes in the study population on the CS rate was unknown. Given the observational nature of the present study, causality cannot be confirmed.

Conclusions

Apparent decline in the overall CS rate was observed in Guangzhou, China, after the implementation of a two-stage intervention package. The decline was most evident among nulliparous women who delivered term singletons. Despite some limitations for causal inference, Guangzhou’s experience in controlling the CS rate by implementing composite interventions with public health education and perinatal healthcare service improvement could have implications for other similar areas with high rates of CS.

Assessing the impact of physical exercise on cognitive function in older medical patients during acute hospitalization: Secondary analysis of a randomized trial

Ve, 05/07/2019 - 23:00

by Mikel L. Sáez de Asteasu, Nicolás Martínez-Velilla, Fabricio Zambom-Ferraresi, Álvaro Casas-Herrero, Eduardo L. Cadore, Arkaitz Galbete, Mikel Izquierdo

Background

Acute illness requiring hospitalization frequently is a sentinel event leading to long-term disability in older people. Prolonged bed rest increases the risk of developing cognitive impairment and dementia in acutely hospitalized older adults. Exercise protocols applied during acute hospitalization can prevent functional decline in older patients, but exercise benefits on specific cognitive domains have not been previously investigated. We aimed to assess the effects of a multicomponent exercise intervention for cognitive function in older adults during acute hospitalization.

Methods and findings

We performed a secondary analysis of a single-blind randomized clinical trial (RCT) conducted from February 1, 2015, to August 30, 2017 in an Acute Care of the Elderly (ACE) unit in a tertiary public hospital in Navarre (Spain). 370 hospitalized patients (aged ≥75 years) were randomly allocated to an exercise intervention (n = 185) or a control (n = 185) group (usual care). The intervention consisted of a multicomponent exercise training program performed during 5–7 consecutive days (2 sessions/day). The usual care group received habitual hospital care, which included physical rehabilitation when needed. The main outcomes were change in executive function from baseline to discharge, assessed with the dual-task (i.e., verbal and arithmetic) Gait Velocity Test (GVT) and the Trail Making Test Part A (TMT-A). Changes in the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) test and verbal fluency ability were also measured after the intervention period. The physical exercise program provided significant benefits over usual care. At discharge, the exercise group showed a mean increase of 0.1 m/s (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.07, 0.13; p < 0.001) in the verbal GVT and 0.1 m/s (95% CI, 0.08, 0.13; p < 0.001) in the arithmetic GVT over usual care group. There was an apparent improvement in the intervention group also in the TMT-A score (−31.1 seconds; 95% CI, −49.5, −12.7 versus −3.13 seconds; 95% CI, −16.3, 10.2 in the control group; p < 0.001) and the MMSE score (2.10 points; 95% CI, 1.75, 2.46 versus 0.27 points; 95% CI, −0.08, 0.63; p < 0.001). Significant benefits were also observed in the exercise group for the verbal fluency test (mean 2.16 words; 95% CI, 1.56, 2.74; p < 0.001) over the usual care group. The main limitations of the study were patients’ difficulty in completing all the tasks at both hospital admission and discharge (e.g., 25% of older patients were unable to complete the arithmetic GVT, and 47% could not complete the TMT-A), and only old patients with relatively good functional capacity at preadmission (i.e., Barthel Index score ≥60 points) were included in the study.

Conclusions

An individualized, multicomponent exercise training program may be an effective therapy for improving cognitive function (i.e., executive function and verbal fluency domains) in very old patients during acute hospitalization. These findings support the need for a shift from the traditional (bedrest-based) hospitalization to one that recognizes the important role of maintaining functional capacity and cognitive function in older adults, key components of intrinsic capacity.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02300896.

Advancing the development of new tuberculosis treatment regimens: The essential role of translational and clinical pharmacology and microbiology

Ve, 05/07/2019 - 23:00

by Kelly E. Dooley, Debra Hanna, Vidya Mave, Kathleen Eisenach, Radojka M. Savic

Clinical, microbiologic, and immunologic determinants of mortality in hospitalized patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis: A prospective cohort study

Ve, 05/07/2019 - 23:00

by Charlotte Schutz, David Barr, Bruno B. Andrade, Muki Shey, Amy Ward, Saskia Janssen, Rosie Burton, Katalin A. Wilkinson, Bianca Sossen, Kiyoshi F. Fukutani, Mark Nicol, Gary Maartens, Robert J. Wilkinson, Graeme Meintjes

Background

In high-burden settings, case fatality rates are reported to be between 11% and 32% in hospitalized patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis, yet the underlying causes of mortality remain poorly characterized. Understanding causes of mortality could inform the development of novel management strategies to improve survival. We aimed to assess clinical and microbiologic determinants of mortality and to characterize the pathophysiological processes underlying death by evaluating host soluble inflammatory mediators and determined the relationship between these mediators and death as well as biomarkers of disseminated tuberculosis.

Methods and findings

Adult patients with HIV hospitalized with a new diagnosis of HIV-associated tuberculosis were enrolled in Cape Town between 2014 and 2016. Detailed tuberculosis diagnostic testing was performed. Biomarkers of tuberculosis dissemination and host soluble inflammatory mediators at baseline were assessed. Of 682 enrolled participants, 576 with tuberculosis (487/576, 84.5% microbiologically confirmed) were included in analyses. The median age was 37 years (IQR = 31–43), 51.2% were female, and the patients had advanced HIV with a median cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) count of 58 cells/L (IQR = 21–120) and a median HIV viral load of 5.1 log10 copies/mL (IQR = 3.3–5.7). Antituberculosis therapy was initiated in 566/576 (98.3%) and 487/576 (84.5%) started therapy within 48 hours of enrolment. Twelve-week mortality was 124/576 (21.5%), with 46/124 (37.1%) deaths occurring within 7 days of enrolment. Clinical and microbiologic determinants of mortality included disseminated tuberculosis (positive urine lipoarabinomannan [LAM], urine Xpert MTB/RIF, or tuberculosis blood culture in 79.6% of deaths versus 60.7% of survivors, p = 0.001), sepsis syndrome (high lactate in 50.8% of deaths versus 28.9% of survivors, p < 0.001), and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (16.9% of deaths versus 7.2% of survivors, p = 0.002). Using non-supervised two-way hierarchical cluster and principal components analyses, we describe an immune profile dominated by mediators of the innate immune system and chemotactic signaling (interleukin-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], IL-6, IL-8, macrophage inflammatory protein-1 beta [MIP-1β]/C-C motif chemokine ligand 4 [CCL4], interferon gamma-induced protein-10 [IP-10]/C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 [CXCL10], MIP-1 alpha [MIP-1α]/CCL3), which segregated participants who died from those who survived. This immune profile was associated with mortality in a Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.2, 95%CI = 1.9–2.7, p < 0.001) and with detection of biomarkers of disseminated tuberculosis. Clinicians attributing causes of death identified tuberculosis as a cause or one of the major causes of death in 89.5% of cases. We did not perform longitudinal sampling and did not have autopsy-confirmed causes of death.

Conclusions

In this study, we did not identify a major contribution from coinfections to these deaths. Disseminated tuberculosis, sepsis syndrome, and rifampicin resistance were associated with mortality. An immune profile dominated by mediators of the innate immune system and chemotactic signaling was associated with both tuberculosis dissemination and mortality. These findings provide pathophysiologic insights into underlying causes of mortality and could be used to inform the development of novel treatment strategies and to develop methods to risk stratify patients to appropriately target novel interventions. Causal relationships cannot be established from this study.

Estimated impact of revising the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule from 2+1 to 1+1 in England and Wales: A modelling study

Me, 03/07/2019 - 23:00

by Yoon Hong Choi, Nick Andrews, Elizabeth Miller

Background

In October 2017, the United Kingdom Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) recommended removal of one primary dose of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) from the existing 2+1 schedule (2, 4, 12 months). We conducted a mathematical modelling study to investigate the potential impact of a 1+1 (3, 12 month) schedule on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Our results and those from a 1+1 immunogenicity study formed the key evidence reviewed by JCVI.

Methods and findings

We developed age-structured, dynamic, deterministic models of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales to describe the impact on IPD of 7-valent PCV (PCV7; introduced in 2006) and PCV13 (introduced in 2010). Key transmission and vaccine parameters were estimated by fitting to carriage data from 2001/2002 and post-PCV IPD data to 2015, using vaccine coverage, mixing patterns between ages, and population data. We considered various models to investigate potential reasons for the rapid increase in non-PCV13 (non-vaccine serotype [NVT]) IPD cases since 2014. After searching a large parameter space, 500 parameter sets were identified with a likelihood statistically close to the maximum and these used to predict future cases (median, prediction range from 500 parameter sets). Our findings indicated that the emergence of individual NVTs with higher virulence resulting from ongoing replacement was likely responsible; the NVT increase was predicted to plateau from 2020. Long-term simulation results suggest that changing to a 1+1 schedule would have little overall impact, as the small increase in vaccine-type IPD would be offset by a reduction in NVT IPD. Our results were robust to changes in vaccine assumptions in a sensitivity analysis. Under the base case scenario, a change to a 1+1 schedule in 2018 was predicted to produce 31 (6, 76) additional IPD cases over five years and 83 (−10, 242) additional pneumococcal-CAP cases, with together 8 (−2, 24) additional deaths, none in children under 15 years. Long-term continuation with the 2+1 schedule, or changing to a 1+1, was predicted to sustain current reductions in IPD cases in under-64-year-olds, but cases in 65+-year-olds would continue to increase because of the effects of an aging population. Limitations of our model include difficulty in fitting to past trends in NVT IPD in some age groups and inherent uncertainty about future NVT behaviour, sparse data for defining the mixing matrix in 65+-year-olds, and the methodological challenge of defining uncertainty on predictions.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that, with the current mature status of the PCV programme in England and Wales, removing one primary dose in the first year of life would have little impact on IPD or pneumococcal CAP cases or associated deaths at any age. A reduction in the number of priming doses would improve programmatic efficiency and facilitate the introduction of new vaccines by reducing the number of coadministered vaccines given at 2 and 4 months of age in the current UK schedule. Our findings should not be applied to other settings with different pneumococcal epidemiology or with immature programmes and poor herd immunity.

Validation of the prognostic value of NF-κB p65 in prostate cancer: A retrospective study using a large multi-institutional cohort of the Canadian Prostate Cancer Biomarker Network

Ma, 02/07/2019 - 23:00

by Andrée-Anne Grosset, Véronique Ouellet, Christine Caron, Gabriela Fragoso, Véronique Barrès, Nathalie Delvoye, Mathieu Latour, Armen Aprikian, Alain Bergeron, Simone Chevalier, Ladan Fazli, Neil Fleshner, Martin Gleave, Pierre Karakiewicz, Louis Lacombe, Jean-Baptiste Lattouf, Theodorus van der Kwast, Dominique Trudel, Anne-Marie Mes-Masson, Fred Saad, for the Canadian Prostate Cancer Biomarker Network

Background

The identification of patients with high-risk prostate cancer (PC) is a major challenge for clinicians, and the improvement of current prognostic parameters is an unmet clinical need. We and others have identified an association between the nuclear localization of NF-κB p65 and biochemical recurrence (BCR) in PC in small and/or single-centre cohorts of patients.

Methods and findings

In this study, we accessed 2 different multi-centre tissue microarrays (TMAs) representing cohorts of patients (Test-TMA and Validation-TMA series) of the Canadian Prostate Cancer Biomarker Network (CPCBN) to validate the association between p65 nuclear frequency and PC outcomes. Immunohistochemical staining of p65 was performed on the Test-TMA and Validation-TMA series, which include PC tissues from patients treated by first-line radical prostatectomy (n = 250 and n = 1,262, respectively). Two independent observers evaluated the p65 nuclear frequency in digital images of cancer tissue and benign adjacent gland tissue. Kaplan–Meier curves coupled with a log-rank test and univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used for statistical analyses of continuous values and dichotomized data (cutoff of 3%). Multivariate analysis of the Validation-TMA cohort showed that p65 nuclear frequency in cancer cells was an independent predictor of BCR using continuous (hazard ratio [HR] 1.02 [95% CI 1.00–1.03], p = 0.004) and dichotomized data (HR 1.33 [95% CI 1.09–1.62], p = 0.005). Using a cutoff of 3%, we found that this biomarker was also associated with the development of bone metastases (HR 1.82 [95% CI 1.05–3.16], p = 0.033) and PC-specific mortality (HR 2.63 [95% CI 1.30–5.31], p = 0.004), independent of clinical parameters. BCR-free survival, bone-metastasis-free survival, and PC-specific survival were shorter for patients with higher p65 nuclear frequency (p < 0.005). As the small cores on TMAs are a limitation of the study, a backward validation of whole PC tissue section will be necessary for the implementation of p65 nuclear frequency as a PC biomarker in the clinical workflow.

Conclusions

We report the first study using the pan-Canadian multi-centre cohorts of CPCBN and validate the association between increased frequency of nuclear p65 frequency and a risk of disease progression.

Kawasaki disease and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination among young children: A self-controlled risk interval and cohort study with null results

Ma, 02/07/2019 - 23:00

by Meghan A. Baker, Bethany Baer, Martin Kulldorff, Lauren Zichittella, Rebecca Reindel, Sandra DeLuccia, Hana Lipowicz, Katherine Freitas, Robert Jin, W. Katherine Yih

Background

Kawasaki disease is an acute vasculitis that primarily affects children younger than 5 years of age. Its etiology is unknown. The United States Vaccine Safety Datalink conducted postlicensure safety surveillance for 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), comparing the risk of Kawasaki disease within 28 days of PCV13 vaccination with the historical risk after 7-valent PCV (PCV7) vaccination and using chart-validation. A relative risk (RR) of 2.38 (95% CI 0.92–6.38) was found. Concurrently, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a postlicensure safety review that identified cases of Kawasaki disease through adverse event reporting. The FDA decided to initiate a larger study of Kawasaki disease risk following PCV13 vaccination in the claims-based Sentinel/Postlicensure Rapid Immunization Safety Monitoring (PRISM) surveillance system. The objective of this study was to determine the existence and magnitude of any increased risk of Kawasaki disease in the 28 days following PCV13 vaccination.

Methods and findings

The study population included mostly commercially insured children from birth to <24 months of age in 2010 to 2015 from across the US. Using claims data of participating Sentinel/PRISM data-providing organizations, PCV13 vaccinations were identified by means of current procedural terminology (CPT), Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS), and National Drug Code (NDC) codes. Potential cases of Kawasaki disease were identified by first-in-365-days International Classification of Diseases 9th revision (ICD-9) code 446.1 or International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) code M30.3 in the inpatient setting. Medical records were sought for potential cases and adjudicated by board-certified pediatricians. The primary analysis used chart-confirmed cases with adjudicated symptom onset in a self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) design, which controls for time-invariant potential confounders. The prespecified risk interval was Days 1–28 after vaccination; a 28-day-long control interval followed this risk interval. A secondary analytic approach used a cohort design, with alternative potential risk intervals of Days 1–28 and Days 1–42. The varying background risk of Kawasaki disease by age was adjusted for in both designs. In the primary analysis, there were 43 confirmed cases of Kawasaki disease in the risk interval and 44 in the control interval. The age-adjusted risk estimate was 1.07 (95% CI 0.70–1.63; p = 0.76). In the secondary, cohort analyses, which included roughly 700 potential cases and more than 3 million person-years, the risk estimates of potential Kawasaki disease in the risk interval versus in unexposed person-time were 0.84 (95% CI 0.65–1.08; p = 0.18) for the Days 1–28 risk interval and 0.97 (95% CI 0.79–1.19; p = 0.80) for the Days 1–42 risk interval. The main limitation of the study was that we lacked the resources to conduct medical record review for all the potential cases of Kawasaki disease. As a result, potential cases rather than chart-confirmed cases were used in the cohort analyses.

Conclusions

With more than 6 million doses of PCV13 administered, no evidence was found of an association between PCV13 vaccination and Kawasaki disease onset in the 4 weeks after vaccination nor of an elevated risk extending or concentrated somewhat beyond 4 weeks. These null results were consistent across alternative designs, age-adjustment methods, control intervals, and categories of Kawasaki disease case included.

Risks of stillbirth and neonatal death with advancing gestation at term: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of 15 million pregnancies

Ma, 02/07/2019 - 23:00

by Javaid Muglu, Henna Rather, David Arroyo-Manzano, Sohinee Bhattacharya, Imelda Balchin, Asma Khalil, Basky Thilaganathan, Khalid S. Khan, Javier Zamora, Shakila Thangaratinam

Background

Despite advances in healthcare, stillbirth rates remain relatively unchanged. We conducted a systematic review to quantify the risks of stillbirth and neonatal death at term (from 37 weeks gestation) according to gestational age.

Methods and findings

We searched the major electronic databases Medline, Embase, and Google Scholar (January 1990–October 2018) without language restrictions. We included cohort studies on term pregnancies that provided estimates of stillbirths or neonatal deaths by gestation week. We estimated the additional weekly risk of stillbirth in term pregnancies that continued versus delivered at various gestational ages. We compared week-specific neonatal mortality rates by gestational age at delivery. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models with random intercepts, and computed risk ratios (RRs), odds ratios (ORs), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Thirteen studies (15 million pregnancies, 17,830 stillbirths) were included. All studies were from high-income countries. Four studies provided the risks of stillbirth in mothers of White and Black race, 2 in mothers of White and Asian race, 5 in mothers of White race only, and 2 in mothers of Black race only. The prospective risk of stillbirth increased with gestational age from 0.11 per 1,000 pregnancies at 37 weeks (95% CI 0.07 to 0.15) to 3.18 per 1,000 at 42 weeks (95% CI 1.84 to 4.35). Neonatal mortality increased when pregnancies continued beyond 41 weeks; the risk increased significantly for deliveries at 42 versus 41 weeks gestation (RR 1.87, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.86, p = 0.012). One additional stillbirth occurred for every 1,449 (95% CI 1,237 to 1,747) pregnancies that advanced from 40 to 41 weeks. Limitations include variations in the definition of low-risk pregnancy, the wide time span of the studies, the use of registry-based data, and potential confounders affecting the outcome.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest there is a significant additional risk of stillbirth, with no corresponding reduction in neonatal mortality, when term pregnancies continue to 41 weeks compared to delivery at 40 weeks.

Systematic review registration

PROSPERO CRD42015013785

Estimating age-stratified influenza-associated invasive pneumococcal disease in England: A time-series model based on population surveillance data

Gi, 27/06/2019 - 23:00

by Chiara Chiavenna, Anne M. Presanis, Andre Charlett, Simon de Lusignan, Shamez Ladhani, Richard G. Pebody, Daniela De Angelis

Background

Measures of the contribution of influenza to Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, both in the seasonal and pandemic setting, are needed to predict the burden of secondary bacterial infections in future pandemics to inform stockpiling. The magnitude of the interaction between these two pathogens has been difficult to quantify because both infections are mainly clinically diagnosed based on signs and symptoms; a combined viral–bacterial testing is rarely performed in routine clinical practice; and surveillance data suffer from confounding problems common to all ecological studies. We proposed a novel multivariate model for age-stratified disease incidence, incorporating contact patterns and estimating disease transmission within and across groups.

Methods and findings

We used surveillance data from England over the years 2009 to 2017. Influenza infections were identified through the virological testing of samples taken from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness (ILI) within the sentinel scheme run by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were routinely reported to Public Health England (PHE) by all the microbiology laboratories included in the national surveillance system. IPD counts at week t, conditional on the previous time point t−1, were assumed to be negative binomially distributed. Influenza counts were linearly included in the model for the mean IPD counts along with an endemic component describing some seasonal background and an autoregressive component mimicking pneumococcal transmission. Using age-specific counts, Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection suggested that the best fit was obtained when the endemic component was expressed as a function of observed temperature and rainfall. Pneumococcal transmission within the same age group was estimated to explain 33.0% (confidence interval [CI] 24.9%–39.9%) of new cases in the elderly, whereas 50.7% (CI 38.8%–63.2%) of incidence in adults aged 15–44 years was attributed to transmission from another age group. The contribution of influenza on IPD during the 2009 pandemic also appeared to vary greatly across subgroups, being highest in school-age children and adults (18.3%, CI 9.4%–28.2%, and 6.07%, CI 2.83%–9.76%, respectively). Other viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus, also seemed to have an impact on IPD: RSV contributed 1.87% (CI 0.89%–3.08%) to pneumococcal infections in the 65+ group, whereas 2.14% (CI 0.87%–3.57%) of cases in the group of 45- to 64-year-olds were attributed to rhinovirus. The validity of this modelling strategy relies on the assumption that viral surveillance adequately represents the true incidence of influenza in the population, whereas the small numbers of IPD cases observed in the younger age groups led to significant uncertainty around some parameter estimates.

Conclusions

Our estimates suggested that a pandemic wave of influenza A/H1N1 with comparable severity to the 2009 pandemic could have a modest impact on school-age children and adults in terms of IPD and a small to negligible impact on infants and the elderly. The seasonal impact of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus was instead more important in the older population groups.

Estimating age-stratified influenza-associated invasive pneumococcal disease in England: A time-series model based on population surveillance data

Gi, 27/06/2019 - 23:00

by Chiara Chiavenna, Anne M. Presanis, Andre Charlett, Simon de Lusignan, Shamez Ladhani, Richard G. Pebody, Daniela De Angelis

Background

Measures of the contribution of influenza to Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, both in the seasonal and pandemic setting, are needed to predict the burden of secondary bacterial infections in future pandemics to inform stockpiling. The magnitude of the interaction between these two pathogens has been difficult to quantify because both infections are mainly clinically diagnosed based on signs and symptoms; a combined viral–bacterial testing is rarely performed in routine clinical practice; and surveillance data suffer from confounding problems common to all ecological studies. We proposed a novel multivariate model for age-stratified disease incidence, incorporating contact patterns and estimating disease transmission within and across groups.

Methods and findings

We used surveillance data from England over the years 2009 to 2017. Influenza infections were identified through the virological testing of samples taken from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness (ILI) within the sentinel scheme run by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were routinely reported to Public Health England (PHE) by all the microbiology laboratories included in the national surveillance system. IPD counts at week t, conditional on the previous time point t−1, were assumed to be negative binomially distributed. Influenza counts were linearly included in the model for the mean IPD counts along with an endemic component describing some seasonal background and an autoregressive component mimicking pneumococcal transmission. Using age-specific counts, Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection suggested that the best fit was obtained when the endemic component was expressed as a function of observed temperature and rainfall. Pneumococcal transmission within the same age group was estimated to explain 33.0% (confidence interval [CI] 24.9%–39.9%) of new cases in the elderly, whereas 50.7% (CI 38.8%–63.2%) of incidence in adults aged 15–44 years was attributed to transmission from another age group. The contribution of influenza on IPD during the 2009 pandemic also appeared to vary greatly across subgroups, being highest in school-age children and adults (18.3%, CI 9.4%–28.2%, and 6.07%, CI 2.83%–9.76%, respectively). Other viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus, also seemed to have an impact on IPD: RSV contributed 1.87% (CI 0.89%–3.08%) to pneumococcal infections in the 65+ group, whereas 2.14% (CI 0.87%–3.57%) of cases in the group of 45- to 64-year-olds were attributed to rhinovirus. The validity of this modelling strategy relies on the assumption that viral surveillance adequately represents the true incidence of influenza in the population, whereas the small numbers of IPD cases observed in the younger age groups led to significant uncertainty around some parameter estimates.

Conclusions

Our estimates suggested that a pandemic wave of influenza A/H1N1 with comparable severity to the 2009 pandemic could have a modest impact on school-age children and adults in terms of IPD and a small to negligible impact on infants and the elderly. The seasonal impact of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus was instead more important in the older population groups.

Effects of single and integrated water, sanitation, handwashing, and nutrition interventions on child soil-transmitted helminth and <i>Giardia</i> infections: A cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Kenya

Me, 26/06/2019 - 23:00

by Amy J. Pickering, Sammy M. Njenga, Lauren Steinbaum, Jenna Swarthout, Audrie Lin, Benjamin F. Arnold, Christine P. Stewart, Holly N. Dentz, MaryAnne Mureithi, Benard Chieng, Marlene Wolfe, Ryan Mahoney, Jimmy Kihara, Kendra Byrd, Gouthami Rao, Theodora Meerkerk, Priscah Cheruiyot, Marina Papaiakovou, Nils Pilotte, Steven A. Williams, John M. Colford Jr., Clair Null

Background

Helminth and protozoan infections affect more than 1 billion children globally. Improving water quality, sanitation, handwashing, and nutrition could be more sustainable control strategies for parasite infections than mass drug administration, while providing other quality of life benefits.

Methods and findings

We enrolled geographic clusters of pregnant women in rural western Kenya into a cluster-randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01704105) that tested 6 interventions: water treatment, improved sanitation, handwashing with soap, combined water treatment, sanitation, and handwashing (WSH), improved nutrition, and combined WSH and nutrition (WSHN). We assessed intervention effects on parasite infections by measuring Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, hookworm, and Giardia duodenalis among children born to the enrolled pregnant women (index children) and their older siblings. After 2 years of intervention exposure, we collected stool specimens from 9,077 total children aged 2 to 15 years in 622 clusters, including 2,346 children in an active control group (received household visits but no interventions), 1,117 in the water treatment arm, 1,160 in the sanitation arm, 1,141 in the handwashing arm, 1,064 in the WSH arm, 1,072 in the nutrition arm, and 1,177 in the WSHN arm. In the control group, 23% of children were infected with A. lumbricoides, 1% with T. trichiura, 2% with hookworm, and 39% with G. duodenalis. The analysis included 4,928 index children (median age in years: 2) and 4,149 older siblings (median age in years: 5); study households had an average of 5 people, <10% had electricity access, and >90% had dirt floors. Compared to the control group, Ascaris infection prevalence was lower in the water treatment arm (prevalence ratio [PR]: 0.82 [95% CI 0.67, 1.00], p = 0.056), the WSH arm (PR: 0.78 [95% CI 0.63, 0.96], p = 0.021), and the WSHN arm (PR: 0.78 [95% CI 0.64, 0.96], p = 0.017). We did not observe differences in Ascaris infection prevalence between the control group and the arms with the individual interventions sanitation (PR: 0.89 [95% CI 0.73, 1.08], p = 0.228), handwashing (PR: 0.89 [95% CI 0.73, 1.09], p = 0.277), or nutrition (PR: 86 [95% CI 0.71, 1.05], p = 0.148). Integrating nutrition with WSH did not provide additional benefit. Trichuris and hookworm were rarely detected, resulting in imprecise effect estimates. No intervention reduced Giardia. Reanalysis of stool samples by quantitative polymerase chain reaction confirmed the reductions in Ascaris infections measured by microscopy in the WSH and WSHN groups. Trial limitations included imperfect uptake of targeted intervention behaviors, limited power to detect effects on rare parasite infections, and that it was not feasible to blind participants and sample collectors to treatment status. However, lab technicians and data analysts were blinded to treatment status. The trial was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the United States Agency for International Development.

Conclusions

Integration of improved water quality, sanitation, and handwashing could contribute to sustainable control strategies for Ascaris infections, particularly in similar settings with recent or ongoing deworming programs. Combining nutrition with WSH did not provide further benefits, and water treatment alone was similarly effective to integrated WSH. Our findings provide new evidence that drinking water should be given increased attention as a transmission pathway for Ascaris.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01704105.

Middle-income countries graduating from health aid: Transforming daunting challenges into smooth transitions

Ma, 25/06/2019 - 23:00

by Gavin Yamey, Osondu Ogbuoji, Justice Nonvignon

Gavin Yamey and co-authors discuss approaches to providing support for middle-income countries transitioning away from health aid.