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Associations of maternal dietary inflammatory potential and quality with offspring birth outcomes: An individual participant data pooled analysis of 7 European cohorts in the ALPHABET consortium

Gi, 21/01/2021 - 15:00

by Ling-Wei Chen, Adrien M. Aubert, Nitin Shivappa, Jonathan Y. Bernard, Sara M. Mensink-Bout, Aisling A. Geraghty, John Mehegan, Matthew Suderman, Kinga Polanska, Wojciech Hanke, Elzbieta Trafalska, Caroline L. Relton, Sarah R. Crozier, Nicholas C. Harvey, Cyrus Cooper, Liesbeth Duijts, Barbara Heude, James R. Hébert, Fionnuala M. McAuliffe, Cecily C. Kelleher, Catherine M. Phillips

Background

Adverse birth outcomes are major causes of morbidity and mortality during childhood and associate with a higher risk of noncommunicable diseases in adult life. Maternal periconception and antenatal nutrition, mostly focusing on single nutrients or foods, has been shown to influence infant birth outcomes. However, evidence on whole diet that considers complex nutrient and food interaction is rare and conflicting. We aim to elucidate the influence of whole-diet maternal dietary inflammatory potential and quality during periconceptional and antenatal periods on birth outcomes.

Methods and findings

We harmonized and pooled individual participant data (IPD) from up to 24,861 mother–child pairs in 7 European mother–offspring cohorts [cohort name, country (recruitment dates): ALSPAC, UK (1 April 1991 to 31 December 1992); EDEN, France (27 January 2003 to 6 March 2006); Generation R, the Netherlands (1 April 2002 to 31 January 2006); Lifeways, Ireland (2 October 2001 to 4 April 2003); REPRO_PL, Poland (18 September 2007 to 16 December 2011); ROLO, Ireland (1 January 2007 to 1 January 2011); SWS, United Kingdom (6 April 1998 to 17 December 2002)]. Maternal diets were assessed preconceptionally (n = 2 cohorts) and antenatally (n = 7 cohorts). Maternal dietary inflammatory potential and quality were ranked using the energy-adjusted Dietary Inflammatory Index (E-DII) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) index, respectively. Primary outcomes were birth weight and gestational age at birth. Adverse birth outcomes, i.e., low birth weight (LBW), macrosomia, small-for-gestational-age (SGA), large-for-gestational-age (LGA), preterm and postterm births were defined according to standard clinical cutoffs. Associations of maternal E-DII and DASH scores with infant birth outcomes were assessed using cohort-specific multivariable regression analyses (adjusted for confounders including maternal education, ethnicity, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), maternal height, parity, cigarettes smoking, and alcohol consumption), with subsequent random-effects meta-analyses.Overall, the study mothers had a mean ± SD age of 29.5 ± 4.9 y at delivery and a mean BMI of 23.3 ± 4.2 kg/m2. Higher pregnancy DASH score (higher dietary quality) was associated with higher birth weight [β(95% CI) = 18.5(5.7, 31.3) g per 1-SD higher DASH score; P value = 0.005] and head circumference [0.03(0.01, 0.06) cm; P value = 0.004], longer birth length [0.05(0.01, 0.10) cm; P value = 0.010], and lower risk of delivering LBW [odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) = 0.89(0.82, 0.95); P value = 0.001] and SGA [0.87(0.82, 0.94); P value < 0.001] infants. Higher maternal prepregnancy E-DII score (more pro-inflammatory diet) was associated with lower birth weight [β(95% CI) = −18.7(−34.8, −2.6) g per 1-SD higher E-DII score; P value = 0.023] and shorter birth length [−0.07(−0.14, −0.01) cm; P value = 0.031], whereas higher pregnancy E-DII score was associated with a shorter birth length [−0.06(−0.10, −0.01) cm; P value = 0.026] and higher risk of SGA [OR(95% CI) = 1.18(1.11, 1.26); P value < 0.001]. In male, but not female, infants higher maternal prepregnancy E-DII was associated with lower birth weight and head circumference, shorter birth length, and higher risk of SGA (P-for-sex-interaction = 0.029, 0.059, 0.104, and 0.075, respectively). No consistent associations were observed for maternal E-DII and DASH scores with gestational age, preterm and postterm birth, or macrosomia and LGA. Limitations of this study were that self-reported dietary data might have increased nondifferential measurement error and that causality cannot be claimed definitely with observational design.

Conclusions

In this cohort study, we observed that maternal diet that is of low quality and high inflammatory potential is associated with lower offspring birth size and higher risk of offspring being born SGA in this multicenter meta-analysis using harmonized IPD. Improving overall maternal dietary pattern based on predefined criteria may optimize fetal growth and avert substantial healthcare burden associated with adverse birth outcomes.

Risk of developing active tuberculosis following tuberculosis screening and preventive therapy for Tibetan refugee children and adolescents in India: An impact assessment

Ma, 19/01/2021 - 15:00

by Kunchok Dorjee, Sonam Topgyal, Tenzin Tsewang, Tenzin Tsundue, Tenzin Namdon, Elizabeth Bonomo, Caroline Kensler, Dekyi Lhadon, Tsering Choetso, Tenzin Nangsel, Tsering Dolkar, Thupten Tsekyi, Chungdak Dorjee, Dawa Phunkyi, Tsetan D. Sadutshang, Zorba Paster, Richard E. Chaisson

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) rates among Tibetan refugee children and adolescents attending boarding schools in India are extremely high. We undertook a comprehensive case finding and TB preventive treatment (TPT) program in 7 schools in the Zero TB Kids project. We aimed to measure the TB infection and disease burden and investigate the risk of TB disease in children and adults who did and did not receive TPT in the schools.

Methods and findings

A mobile team annually screened children and staff for TB at the 7 boarding schools in Himachal Pradesh, India, using symptom criteria, radiography, molecular diagnostics, and tuberculin skin tests. TB infection (TBI) was treated with short-course regimens of isoniazid and rifampin or rifampin. TB disease was treated according to Tibetan and Indian guidelines. Between April 2017 and December 2019, 6,582 schoolchildren (median age 14 [IQR 11–16] years) and 807 staff (median age 40 [IQR 33–48] years) were enrolled. Fifty-one percent of the students and 58% of the staff were females. Over 13,161 person-years of follow-up in schoolchildren (median follow-up 2.3 years) and 1,800 person-years of follow-up in staff (median follow-up 2.5 years), 69 TB episodes occurred in schoolchildren and 4 TB episodes occurred in staff, yielding annual incidence rates of 524/100,000 (95% CI 414–663/100,000) person-years and 256/100,000 (95% CI 96–683/100,000) person-years, respectively. Of 1,412 schoolchildren diagnosed with TBI, 1,192 received TPT. Schoolchildren who received TPT had 79% lower risk of TB disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.21; 95% CI 0.07–0.69; p = 0.010) compared to non-recipients, the primary study outcome. Protection was greater in recent contacts (aHR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01–0.42; p = 0.004), the secondary study outcome. The prevalence of recent contacts was 28% (1,843/6,582). Two different TPT regimens were used (3HR and 4R), and both were apparently effective. No staff receiving TPT developed TB. Overall, between 2017 and 2019, TB disease incidence decreased by 87%, from 837/100,000 (95% CI 604–1,129/100,000) person-years to 110/100,000 (95% CI 36–255/100,000) person-years (p < 0.001), and TBI prevalence decreased by 42% from 19% (95% CI 18%–20%) to 11% (95% CI 10%–12%) (p < 0.001). A limitation of our study is that TB incidence could be influenced by secular trends during the study period.

Conclusions

In this study, following implementation of a school-wide TB screening and preventive treatment program, we observed a significant reduction in the burden of TB disease and TBI in children and adolescents. The benefit of TPT was particularly marked for recent TB contacts. This initiative may serve as a model for TB detection and prevention in children and adolescents in other communities affected by TB.

The impact of a routine late third trimester growth scan on the incidence, diagnosis, and management of breech presentation in Oxfordshire, UK: A cohort study

Ve, 15/01/2021 - 15:00

by Ibtisam Salim, Eleonora Staines-Urias, Sam Mathewlynn, Lior Drukker, Manu Vatish, Lawrence Impey

Background

Breech presentation at term contributes significantly to cesarean section (CS) rates worldwide. External cephalic version (ECV) is a safe procedure that reduces term breech presentation and associated CS. A principal barrier to ECV is failure to diagnose breech presentation. Failure to diagnose breech presentation also leads to emergency CS or unplanned vaginal breech birth. Recent evidence suggests that undiagnosed breech might be eliminated using a third trimester scan. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of introducing a routine 36-week scan on the incidence of breech presentation and of undiagnosed breech presentation.

Methods and findings

We carried out a population-based cohort study of pregnant women in a single unit covering Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. All women delivering between 37+0 and 42+6 weeks gestational age, with a singleton, nonanomalous fetus over a 4-year period (01 October 2014 to 30 September 2018) were included. The mean maternal age was 31 years, mean BMI 26, 44% were nulliparous, and 21% were of non-white ethnicity. Comparisons between the 2 years before and after introduction of routine 36-week scan were made for 2 primary outcomes of (1) the incidence of breech presentation and (2) undiagnosed breech presentation. Secondary outcomes related to ECV, mode of birth, and perinatal outcomes. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. A total of 27,825 pregnancies were analysed (14,444 before and 13,381 after). A scan after 35+0 weeks was performed in 5,578 (38.6%) before, and 13,251 (99.0%) after (p < 0.001). The incidence of breech presentation at birth did not change significantly (2.6% and 2.7%) (RR 1.02; 95% CI 0.89, 1.18; p = 0.76). The rate of undiagnosed breech before labour reduced, from 22.3% to 4.7% (RR 0.21; 95% CI 0.12, 0.36; p < 0.001). Vaginal breech birth rates fell from 10.3% to 5.3% (RR 0.51; 95% CI 0.30, 0.87; p = 0.01); nonsignificant increases in elective CS rates and decreases in emergency CS rates for breech babies were seen. Neonatal outcomes were not significantly altered. Study limitations include insufficient numbers to detect serious adverse outcomes, that we cannot exclude secular changes over time which may have influenced our results, and that these findings are most applicable where a comprehensive ECV service exists.

Conclusions

In this study, a universal 36-week scan policy was associated with a reduction in the incidence but not elimination of undiagnosed term breech presentation. There was no reduction in the incidence of breech presentation at birth, despite a comprehensive ECV service.

Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses

Gi, 14/01/2021 - 15:00

by Luanluan Sun, Lisa Pennells, Stephen Kaptoge, Christopher P. Nelson, Scott C. Ritchie, Gad Abraham, Matthew Arnold, Steven Bell, Thomas Bolton, Stephen Burgess, Frank Dudbridge, Qi Guo, Eleni Sofianopoulou, David Stevens, John R. Thompson, Adam S. Butterworth, Angela Wood, John Danesh, Nilesh J. Samani, Michael Inouye, Emanuele Di Angelantonio

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD.

Methods and findings

Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703–0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009–0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40–75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

Recognition and management of community-acquired acute kidney injury in low-resource settings in the ISN 0by25 trial: A multi-country feasibility study

Gi, 14/01/2021 - 15:00

by Etienne Macedo, Ulla Hemmila, Sanjib Kumar Sharma, Rolando Claure-Del Granado, Henry Mzinganjira, Emmanuel A. Burdmann, Jorge Cerdá, John Feehally, Fredric Finkelstein, Guillermo García-García, Vivekanand Jha, Norbert H. Lameire, Euyhyun Lee, Nathan W. Levin, Andrew Lewington, Raúl Lombardi, Michael V. Rocco, Eliah Aronoff-Spencer, Marcello Tonelli, Karen Yeates, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Ravindra L. Mehta, for the ISN 0by25 Trial Study Group

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is increasingly encountered in community settings and contributes to morbidity, mortality, and increased resource utilization worldwide. In low-resource settings, lack of awareness of and limited access to diagnostic and therapeutic interventions likely influence patient management. We evaluated the feasibility of the use of point-of-care (POC) serum creatinine and urine dipstick testing with an education and training program to optimize the identification and management of AKI in the community in 3 low-resource countries.

Methods and findings

Patients presenting to healthcare centers (HCCs) from 1 October 2016 to 29 September 2017 in the cities Cochabamba, Bolivia; Dharan, Nepal; and Blantyre, Malawi, were assessed utilizing a symptom-based risk score to identify patients at moderate to high AKI risk. POC testing for serum creatinine and urine dipstick at enrollment were utilized to classify these patients as having chronic kidney disease (CKD), acute kidney disease (AKD), or no kidney disease (NKD). Patients were followed for a maximum of 6 months with repeat POC testing. AKI development was assessed at 7 days, kidney recovery at 1 month, and progression to CKD and mortality at 3 and 6 months. Following an observation phase to establish baseline data, care providers and physicians in the HCCs were trained with a standardized protocol utilizing POC tests to evaluate and manage patients, guided by physicians in referral hospitals connected via mobile digital technology. We evaluated 3,577 patients, and 2,101 were enrolled: 978 in the observation phase and 1,123 in the intervention phase. Due to the high number of patients attending the centers daily, it was not feasible to screen all patients to assess the actual incidence of AKI. Of enrolled patients, 1,825/2,101 (87%) were adults, 1,117/2,101 (53%) were females, 399/2,101 (19%) were from Bolivia, 813/2,101 (39%) were from Malawi, and 889/2,101 (42%) were from Nepal. The age of enrolled patients ranged from 1 month to 96 years, with a mean of 43 years (SD 21) and a median of 43 years (IQR 27–62). Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (418/2,101; 20%). At enrollment, 197/2,101 (9.4%) had CKD, and 1,199/2,101 (57%) had AKD. AKI developed in 30% within 7 days. By 1 month, 268/978 (27%) patients in the observation phase and 203/1,123 (18%) in the intervention phase were lost to follow-up. In the intervention phase, more patients received fluids (observation 714/978 [73%] versus intervention 874/1,123 [78%]; 95% CI 0.63, 0.94; p = 0.012), hospitalization was reduced (observation 578/978 [59%] versus intervention 548/1,123 [49%]; 95% CI 0.55, 0.79; p < 0.001), and admitted patients with severe AKI did not show a significantly lower mortality during follow-up (observation 27/135 [20%] versus intervention 21/178 [11.8%]; 95% CI 0.98, 3.52; p = 0.057). Of 504 patients with kidney function assessed during the 6-month follow-up, de novo CKD arose in 79/484 (16.3%), with no difference between the observation and intervention phase (95% CI 0.91, 2.47; p = 0.101). Overall mortality was 273/2,101 (13%) and was highest in those who had CKD (24/106; 23%), followed by those with AKD (128/760; 17%), AKI (85/628; 14%), and NKD (36/607; 6%). The main limitation of our study was the inability to determine the actual incidence of kidney dysfunction in the health centers as it was not feasible to screen all the patients due to the high numbers seen daily.

Conclusions

This multicenter, non-randomized feasibility study in low-resource settings demonstrates that it is feasible to implement a comprehensive program utilizing POC testing and protocol-based management to improve the recognition and management of AKI and AKD in high-risk patients in primary care.

Multimorbidity combinations, costs of hospital care and potentially preventable emergency admissions in England: A cohort study

Me, 13/01/2021 - 15:00

by Jonathan Stokes, Bruce Guthrie, Stewart W. Mercer, Nigel Rice, Matt Sutton

Background

Patients with multimorbidities have the greatest healthcare needs and generate the highest expenditure in the health system. There is an increasing focus on identifying specific disease combinations for addressing poor outcomes. Existing research has identified a small number of prevalent “clusters” in the general population, but the limited number examined might oversimplify the problem and these may not be the ones associated with important outcomes. Combinations with the highest (potentially preventable) secondary care costs may reveal priority targets for intervention or prevention. We aimed to examine the potential of defining multimorbidity clusters for impacting secondary care costs.

Methods and findings

We used national, Hospital Episode Statistics, data from all hospital admissions in England from 2017/2018 (cohort of over 8 million patients) and defined multimorbidity based on ICD-10 codes for 28 chronic conditions (we backfilled conditions from 2009/2010 to address potential undercoding). We identified the combinations of multimorbidity which contributed to the highest total current and previous 5-year costs of secondary care and costs of potentially preventable emergency hospital admissions in aggregate and per patient. We examined the distribution of costs across unique disease combinations to test the potential of the cluster approach for targeting interventions at high costs. We then estimated the overlap between the unique combinations to test potential of the cluster approach for targeting prevention of accumulated disease. We examined variability in the ranks and distributions across age (over/under 65) and deprivation (area level, deciles) subgroups and sensitivity to considering a smaller number of diseases.There were 8,440,133 unique patients in our sample, over 4 million (53.1%) were female, and over 3 million (37.7%) were aged over 65 years. No clear “high cost” combinations of multimorbidity emerged as possible targets for intervention. Over 2 million (31.6%) patients had 63,124 unique combinations of multimorbidity, each contributing a small fraction (maximum 3.2%) to current-year or 5-year secondary care costs. Highest total cost combinations tended to have fewer conditions (dyads/triads, most including hypertension) affecting a relatively large population. This contrasted with the combinations that generated the highest cost for individual patients, which were complex sets of many (6+) conditions affecting fewer persons. However, all combinations containing chronic kidney disease and hypertension, or diabetes and hypertension, made up a significant proportion of total secondary care costs, and all combinations containing chronic heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and hypertension had the highest proportion of preventable emergency admission costs, which might offer priority targets for prevention of disease accumulation. The results varied little between age and deprivation subgroups and sensitivity analyses.Key limitations include availability of data only from hospitals and reliance on hospital coding of health conditions.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that there are no clear multimorbidity combinations for a cluster-targeted intervention approach to reduce secondary care costs. The role of risk-stratification and focus on individual high-cost patients with interventions is particularly questionable for this aim. However, if aetiology is favourable for preventing further disease, the cluster approach might be useful for targeting disease prevention efforts with potential for cost-savings in secondary care.

Plasma proteins associated with cardiovascular death in patients with chronic coronary heart disease: A retrospective study

Me, 13/01/2021 - 15:00

by Lars Wallentin, Niclas Eriksson, Maciej Olszowka, Tanja B. Grammer, Emil Hagström, Claes Held, Marcus E. Kleber, Wolfgang Koenig, Winfried März, Ralph A. H. Stewart, Harvey D. White, Mikael Åberg, Agneta Siegbahn

Background

Circulating biomarkers are associated with the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) and its complications by reflecting pathophysiological pathways and/or organ dysfunction. We explored the associations between 157 cardiovascular (CV) and inflammatory biomarkers and CV death using proximity extension assays (PEA) in patients with chronic CHD.

Methods and findings

The derivation cohort consisted of 605 cases with CV death and 2,788 randomly selected non-cases during 3–5 years follow-up included in the STabilization of Atherosclerotic plaque By Initiation of darapLadIb TherapY (STABILITY) trial between 2008 and 2010. The replication cohort consisted of 245 cases and 1,042 non-cases during 12 years follow-up included in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study between 1997 and 2000. Biomarker levels were measured with conventional immunoassays and/or with the OLINK PEA panels CVD I and Inflammation. Associations with CV death were evaluated by Random Survival Forest (RF) and Cox regression analyses.Both cohorts had the same median age (65 years) and 20% smokers, while there were slight differences in male sex (82% and 76%), hypertension (70% and 78%), and diabetes (39% and 30%) in the respective STABILITY and LURIC cohorts. The analyses identified 18 biomarkers with confirmed independent association with CV death by Boruta analyses and statistical significance (all p < 0.0001) by Cox regression when adjusted for clinical characteristics in both cohorts. Most prognostic information was carried by N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), hazard ratio (HR for 1 standard deviation [SD] increase of the log scale of the distribution of the biomarker in the replication cohort) 2.079 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.799–2.402), and high-sensitivity troponin T (cTnT-hs) HR 1.715 (95% CI 1.491–1.973). The other proteins with independent associations were growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) HR 1.728 (95% CI 1.527–1.955), transmembrane immunoglobulin and mucin domain protein (TIM-1) HR 1.555 (95% CI 1.362–1.775), renin HR 1.501 (95% CI 1.305–1.727), osteoprotegerin (OPG) HR 1.488 (95% CI 1.297–1.708), soluble suppression of tumorigenesis 2 protein (sST2) HR 1.478 (95% CI 1.307–1.672), cystatin-C (Cys-C) HR 1.370 (95% CI 1.243–1.510), tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2 (TRAIL-R2) HR 1.205 (95% CI 1.131–1.285), carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA-125) HR 1.347 (95% CI 1.226–1.479), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) HR 1.399 (95% CI 1.255–1.561), interleukin 6 (IL-6) HR 1.478 (95% CI 1.316–1.659), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) HR 1.259 (95% CI 1.134–1.396), spondin-1 HR 1.295 (95% CI 1.156–1.450), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) HR 1.349 (95% CI 1.237–1.472), chitinase-3 like protein 1 (CHI3L1) HR 1.284 (95% CI 1.129–1.461), tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNF-R1) HR 1.486 (95% CI 1.307–1.689), and adrenomedullin (AM) HR 1.750 (95% CI 1.490–2.056).The study is limited by the differences in design, size, and length of follow-up of the 2 studies and the lack of results from coronary angiograms and follow-up of nonfatal events.

Conclusions

Profiles of levels of multiple plasma proteins might be useful for the identification of different pathophysiological pathways associated with an increased risk of CV death in patients with chronic CHD.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00799903.

Accelerometer measured physical activity and the incidence of cardiovascular disease: Evidence from the UK Biobank cohort study

Ma, 12/01/2021 - 15:00

by Rema Ramakrishnan, Aiden Doherty, Karl Smith-Byrne, Kazem Rahimi, Derrick Bennett, Mark Woodward, Rosemary Walmsley, Terence Dwyer

Background

Higher levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, uncertainty exists on whether the inverse relationship between PA and incidence of CVD is greater at the highest levels of PA. Past studies have mostly relied on self-reported evidence from questionnaire-based PA, which is crude and cannot capture all PA undertaken. We investigated the association between accelerometer-measured moderate, vigorous, and total PA and incident CVD.

Methods and findings

We obtained accelerometer-measured moderate-intensity and vigorous-intensity physical activities and total volume of PA, over a 7-day period in 2013–2015, for 90,211 participants without prior or concurrent CVD in the UK Biobank cohort. Participants in the lowest category of total PA smoked more, had higher body mass index and C-reactive protein, and were diagnosed with hypertension. PA was associated with 3,617 incident CVD cases during 440,004 person-years of follow-up (median (interquartile range [IQR]): 5.2 (1.2) years) using Cox regression models. We found a linear dose–response relationship for PA, whether measured as moderate-intensity, vigorous-intensity, or as total volume, with risk of incident of CVD. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for increasing quarters of the PA distribution relative to the lowest fourth were for moderate-intensity PA: 0.71 (0.65, 0.77), 0.59 (0.54, 0.65), and 0.46 (0.41, 0.51); for vigorous-intensity PA: 0.70 (0.64, 0.77), 0.54 (0.49,0.59), and 0.41 (0.37,0.46); and for total volume of PA: 0.73 (0.67, 0.79), 0.63 (0.57, 0.69), and 0.47 (0.43, 0.52). We took account of potential confounders but unmeasured confounding remains a possibility, and while removal of early deaths did not affect the estimated HRs, we cannot completely dismiss the likelihood that reverse causality has contributed to the findings. Another possible limitation of this work is the quantification of PA intensity-levels based on methods validated in relatively small studies.

Conclusions

In this study, we found no evidence of a threshold for the inverse association between objectively measured moderate, vigorous, and total PA with CVD. Our findings suggest that PA is not only associated with lower risk for of CVD, but the greatest benefit is seen for those who are active at the highest level.

Social determinants of mortality from COVID-19: A simulation study using NHANES

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Benjamin Seligman, Maddalena Ferranna, David E. Bloom

Background

The COVID-19 epidemic in the United States is widespread, with more than 200,000 deaths reported as of September 23, 2020. While ecological studies show higher burdens of COVID-19 mortality in areas with higher rates of poverty, little is known about social determinants of COVID-19 mortality at the individual level.

Methods and findings

We estimated the proportions of COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and comorbid conditions using their reported univariate proportions among COVID-19 deaths and correlations among these variables in the general population from the 2017–2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We used these proportions to randomly sample individuals from NHANES. We analyzed the distributions of COVID-19 deaths by race/ethnicity, income, education level, and veteran status. We analyzed the association of these characteristics with mortality by logistic regression. Summary demographics of deaths include mean age 71.6 years, 45.9% female, and 45.1% non-Hispanic white. We found that disproportionate deaths occurred among individuals with nonwhite race/ethnicity (54.8% of deaths, 95% CI 49.0%–59.6%, p < 0.001), individuals with income below the median (67.5%, 95% CI 63.4%–71.5%, p < 0.001), individuals with less than a high school level of education (25.6%, 95% CI 23.4% –27.9%, p < 0.001), and veterans (19.5%, 95% CI 15.8%–23.4%, p < 0.001). Except for veteran status, these characteristics are significantly associated with COVID-19 mortality in multiple logistic regression. Limitations include the lack of institutionalized people in the sample (e.g., nursing home residents and incarcerated persons), the need to use comorbidity data collected from outside the US, and the assumption of the same correlations among variables for the noninstitutionalized population and COVID-19 decedents.

Conclusions

Substantial inequalities in COVID-19 mortality are likely, with disproportionate burdens falling on those who are of racial/ethnic minorities, are poor, have less education, and are veterans. Healthcare systems must ensure adequate access to these groups. Public health measures should specifically reach these groups, and data on social determinants should be systematically collected from people with COVID-19.

Estimating HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis need and impact in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia: A geospatial and risk-based analysis

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Dominik Stelzle, Peter Godfrey-Faussett, Chuan Jia, Obreniokibo Amiesimaka, Mary Mahy, Delivette Castor, Ioannis Hodges-Mameletzis, Lastone Chitembo, Rachel Baggaley, Shona Dalal

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a WHO-recommended HIV prevention method for people at high risk for acquiring HIV, is being increasingly implemented in many countries. Setting programmatic targets, particularly in generalised epidemics, could incorporate estimates of the size of the population likely to be eligible for PrEP using incidence-based thresholds. We estimated the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for PrEP and the number of HIV infections that could be averted in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia using prioritisation based on age, sex, geography, and markers of risk.

Methods and findings

We analysed the latest nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia to determine the proportion of adults who report behavioural markers of risk for HIV infection. We used prevalence ratios (PRs) to quantify the association of these factors with HIV status. Using a multiplier method, we combined these proportions with the number of new HIV infections by district, derived from district-level modelled HIV estimates. Based on these numbers, different scenarios were analysed for the minimum number of person-years on PrEP needed to prevent 1 HIV infection (NNP).An estimated total of 38,000, 108,000, and 46,000 new infections occurred in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia in 2016, corresponding with incidence rates of 0.43, 0.63, and 0.57 per 100 person-years. In these countries, 9%–20% of new infections occurred among people with a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months and 40%–42% among people with either an STI or a non-regular sexual partner (NP) in the past 12 months (STINP). The models estimate that around 50% of new infections occurred in districts with incidence rates ≥1.0% in Mozambique and Zambia and ≥0.5% in Malawi. In Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, 35.1%, 21.9%, and 12.5% of the population live in these high-incidence districts. In the most parsimonious scenario, if women aged 15–34 years and men 20–34 years with an STI in the past 12 months living in high-incidence districts were to take PrEP, it would take a minimum of 65.8 person-years on PrEP to avert 1 HIV infection per year in Malawi, 35.2 in Mozambique, and 16.4 in Zambia. Our findings suggest that 3,300, 5,200, and 1,700 new infections could be averted per year in the 3 countries, respectively. Limitations of our study are that these values are based on modelled estimates of HIV incidence and self-reported behavioural risk factors from national surveys.

Conclusions

A large proportion of new HIV infections in these 3 African countries were estimated to occur among people who had either an STI or an NP in the past year, providing a straightforward means to set PrEP targets. Greater prioritisation of PrEP by district, sex, age, and behavioural risk factors resulted in lower NNPs thereby increasing PrEP cost-effectiveness, but also diminished the overall impact on reducing new infections

Mindfulness-based programmes for mental health promotion in adults in nonclinical settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Julieta Galante, Claire Friedrich, Anna F Dawson, Marta Modrego-Alarcón, Pia Gebbing, Irene Delgado-Suárez, Radhika Gupta, Lydia Dean, Tim Dalgleish, Ian R White, Peter B Jones

Background

There is an urgent need for mental health promotion in nonclinical settings. Mindfulness–based programmes (MBPs) are being widely implemented to reduce stress, but a comprehensive evidence synthesis is lacking. We reviewed trials to assess whether MBPs promote mental health relative to no intervention or comparator interventions.

Methods and findings

Following a detailed preregistered protocol (PROSPERO CRD42018105213) developed with public and professional stakeholders, 13 databases were searched to August 2020 for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) examining in–person, expert–defined MBPs in nonclinical settings. Two researchers independently selected, extracted, and appraised trials using the Cochrane Risk–of–Bias Tool 2.0. Primary outcomes were psychometrically validated anxiety, depression, psychological distress, and mental well–being questionnaires at 1 to 6 months after programme completion. Multiple testing was performed using p < 0.0125 (Bonferroni) for statistical significance. Secondary outcomes, meta–regression and sensitivity analyses were prespecified. Pairwise random–effects multivariate meta–analyses and prediction intervals (PIs) were calculated.A total of 11,605 participants in 136 trials were included (29 countries, 77% women, age range 18 to 73 years). Compared with no intervention, in most but not all scenarios MBPs improved average anxiety (8 trials; standardised mean difference (SMD) = −0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.80 to −0.33; p–value < 0.001; 95% PI −1.19 to 0.06), depression (14 trials; SMD = −0.53; 95% CI −0.72 to −0.34; p–value < 0.001; 95% PI −1.14 to 0.07), distress (27 trials; SMD = −0.45; 95% CI −0.58 to −0.31; p–value < 0.001; 95% PI −1.04 to 0.14), and well–being (9 trials; SMD = 0.33; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.54; p–value = 0.003; 95% PI −0.29 to 0.94). Compared with nonspecific active control conditions, in most but not all scenarios MBPs improved average depression (6 trials; SMD = −0.46; 95% CI −0.81 to −0.10; p–value = 0.012, 95% PI −1.57 to 0.66), with no statistically significant evidence for improving anxiety or distress and no reliable data on well–being. Compared with specific active control conditions, there is no statistically significant evidence of MBPs’ superiority. Only effects on distress remained when higher–risk trials were excluded. USA–based trials reported smaller effects. MBPs targeted at higher–risk populations had larger effects than universal MBPs. The main limitation of this review is that confidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach is moderate to very low, mainly due to inconsistency and high risk of bias in many trials.

Conclusions

Compared with taking no action, MBPs of the included studies promote mental health in nonclinical settings, but given the heterogeneity between studies, the findings do not support generalisation of MBP effects across every setting. MBPs may have specific effects on some common mental health symptoms. Other preventative interventions may be equally effective. Implementation of MBPs in nonclinical settings should be partnered with thorough research to confirm findings and learn which settings are most likely to benefit.

Interpersonal psychotherapy delivered by nonspecialists for depression and posttraumatic stress disorder among Kenyan HIV–positive women affected by gender-based violence: Randomized controlled trial

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Susan M. Meffert, Thomas C. Neylan, Charles E. McCulloch, Kelly Blum, Craig R. Cohen, Elizabeth A. Bukusi, Helen Verdeli, John C. Markowitz, James G. Kahn, David Bukusi, Harsha Thirumurthy, Grace Rota, Ray Rota, Grace Oketch, Elizabeth Opiyo, Linnet Ongeri

Background

HIV–positive women suffer a high burden of mental disorders due in part to gender-based violence (GBV). Comorbid depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are typical psychiatric consequences of GBV. Despite attention to the HIV-GBV syndemic, few HIV clinics offer formal mental healthcare. This problem is acute in sub-Saharan Africa, where the world’s majority of HIV–positive women live and prevalence of GBV is high.

Methods and findings

We conducted a randomized controlled trial at an HIV clinic in Kisumu, Kenya. GBV-affected HIV–positive women with both major depressive disorder (MDD) and PTSD were randomized to 12 sessions of interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT) plus treatment as usual (TAU) or Wait List+TAU. Nonspecialists were trained to deliver IPT inside the clinic. After 3 months, participants were reassessed, and those assigned to Wait List+TAU were given IPT. The primary outcomes were diagnosis of MDD and PTSD (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview) at 3 months. Secondary outcomes included symptom measures of depression and PTSD, intimate partner violence (IPV), and disability. A total of 256 participants enrolled between May 2015 and July 2016. At baseline, the mean age of the women in this study was 37 years; 61% reported physical IPV in the past week; 91% reported 2 or more lifetime traumatic events and monthly income was 18USD. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression showed that participants randomized to IPT+TAU had lower odds of MDD (odds ratio [OR] 0.26, 95% CI [0.11 to 0.60], p = 0.002) and lower odds of PTSD (OR 0.35, [0.14 to 0.86], p = 0.02) than controls. IPT+TAU participants had lower odds of MDD-PTSD comorbidity than controls (OR 0.36, 95% CI [0.15 to 0.90], p = 0.03). Linear mixed models were used to assess secondary outcomes: IPT+TAU participants had reduced disability (−6.9 [−12.2, −1.5], p = 0.01), and nonsignificantly reduced work absenteeism (−3.35 [−6.83, 0.14], p = 0.06); partnered IPT+TAU participants had a reduction of IPV (−2.79 [−5.42, −0.16], p = 0.04). Gains were maintained across 6-month follow-up. Treatment group differences were observed only at month 3, the time point at which the groups differed in IPT status (before cross over). Study limitations included 35% attrition inclusive of follow-up assessments, generalizability to populations not in HIV care, and data not collected on TAU resources accessed.

Conclusions

IPT for MDD and PTSD delivered by nonspecialists in the context of HIV care yielded significant improvements in HIV–positive women’s mental health, functioning, and GBV (IPV) exposure, compared to controls.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials Identifier NCT02320799.

Postpartum depressive symptoms following implementation of the 10 steps to successful breastfeeding program in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo: A cohort study

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Robert A. Agler, Paul N. Zivich, Bienvenu Kawende, Frieda Behets, Marcel Yotebieng

Background

Social support and relevant skills training can reduce the risk of postpartum depression (PPD) by reducing the impact of stressors. The 10-step program to encourage exclusive breastfeeding that forms the basis of the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) provides both, suggesting it may lessen depressive symptoms directly or by reducing difficulties associated with infant feeding. Our objective was to quantify the association of implementing Steps 1–9 or Steps 1–10 on postpartum depressive symptoms and test whether this association was mediated by breastfeeding difficulties.

Methods and findings

We used data from a breastfeeding promotion trial of all women who gave birth to a healthy singleton between May 24 and August 25, 2012 in 1 of the 6 facilities comparing different BFHI implementations (Steps 1–9, Steps 1–10) to the standard of care (SOC) randomized by facility in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. Depressive symptoms, a non-registered trial outcome, was assessed at 14 weeks via the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to estimate the association of BFHI implementations on depressive symptoms and the controlled direct association through breastfeeding difficulties at 10 weeks postpartum.A total of 903 mother–infant pairs were included in the analysis. Most women enrolled had previously given birth (76%) and exclusively breastfed at 10 weeks (55%). The median age was 27 (interquartile range (IQR): 23, 32 years). The proportion of women reporting breastfeeding difficulties at week 10 was higher in both Steps 1–9 (75%) and Steps 1–10 (91%) relative to the SOC (67%). However, the number of reported difficulties was similar between Steps 1–9 (median: 2; IQR: 0, 3) and SOC (2; IQR: 0, 3), with slightly more in Steps 1–10 (2; IQR: 1, 3). The prevalence of symptoms consistent with probable depression (EPDS score >13) was 18% for SOC, 11% for Steps 1–9 (prevalence difference [PD] = −0.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): −0.14 to −0.01, p = 0.019), and 8% for Steps 1–10 (PD = −0.11, −0.16 to −0.05; p < 0.001). We found mediation by breastfeeding difficulties. In the presence of any difficulties, the PD was reduced for both Steps 1–9 (−0.15; 95% confidence level (CL): −0.25, −0.06; p < 0.01) and Steps 1–10 (−0.16; 95% CL: −0.25, −0.06; p < 0.01). If no breastfeeding difficulties occurred in the population, there was no difference in the prevalence of probable depression for Steps 1–9 (0.21; 95% CL: −0.24, 0.66; p = 0.365) and Steps 1–10 (−0.03; 95% CL: −0.19, 0.13; p = 0.735). However, a limitation of the study is that the results are based on 2 hospitals randomized to each group.

Conclusions

In conclusion, in this cohort, the implementation of the BFHI steps was associated with a reduction in depressive symptoms in the groups implementing BFHI Steps 1–9 or 1–10 relative to the SOC, with the implementation of Steps 1–10 associated with the largest decrease. Specifically, the reduction in depressive symptoms was observed for women reporting breastfeeding difficulties. PPD has a negative impact on the mother, her partner, and the baby, with long-lasting consequences. This additional benefit of BFHI steps suggests that renewed effort to scale its implementation globally may be beneficial to mitigate the negative impacts of PPD on the mother, her partner, and the baby.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01428232

Associations of parental depression during adolescence with cognitive development in later life in China: A population-based cohort study

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Zhihui Li, Wenjuan Qin, Vikram Patel

Background

Prior research has underscored negative impacts of perinatal parental depression on offspring cognitive performance in early childhood. However, little is known about the effects of parental depression during adolescence on offspring cognitive development.

Methods and findings

This study used longitudinal data from the nationally representative China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The sample included 2,281 adolescents aged 10–15 years (the median age was 13 years with an interquartile range between 11 and 14 years) in 2012 when their parents were surveyed for depression symptoms with the 20-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). The sample was approximately balanced by sex, with 1,088 females (47.7%). We examined the associations of parental depression in 2012 with offspring cognitive performance (measured by mathematics, vocabulary, immediate word recall, delayed word recall, and number series tests) in subsequent years (i.e., 2014, 2016, and 2018) using linear regression models, adjusting for various offspring (i.e., age, sex, and birth order), parent (i.e., parents’ education level, age, whether living with the offspring, and employment status), and household characteristics (i.e., place of residence, household income, and the number of offspring). We found parental depression during adolescence to be significantly associated with worse cognitive performance in subsequent years, in both crude and adjusted models. For example, in the crude models, adolescents whose mothers had depression symptoms in 2012 scored 1.0 point lower (95% confidence interval [CI]: −1.2 to −0.8, p < 0.001) in mathematics in 2014 compared to those whose mothers did not have depression symptoms; after covariate adjustment, this difference marginally reduced to 0.8 points (95% CI: −1.0 to −0.5, p < 0.001); the associations remained robust after further adjusting for offspring earlier cognitive ability in toddlerhood (−1.2, 95% CI: −1.6, −0.9, p < 0.001), offspring cognitive ability in 2012 (−0.6, 95% CI: −0.8, −0.3, p < 0.001), offspring depression status (−0.7, 95% CI: −1.0, −0.5, p < 0.001), and parents’ cognitive ability (−0.8, 95% CI: −1.2, −0.3, p < 0.001). In line with the neuroplasticity theory, we observed stronger associations between maternal depression and mathematical/vocabulary scores among the younger adolescents (i.e., 10–11 years) than the older ones (i.e., 12–15 years). For example, the association between maternal depression and 2014 vocabulary scores was estimated to be −2.1 (95% CI: −2.6, −1.6, p < 0.001) in those aged 10–11 years, compared to −1.2 (95% CI: −1.6, −0.8, p < 0.001) in those aged 12–15 years with a difference of 0.9 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.6, p = 0.010). We also observed a stronger association of greater depression severity with worse mathematical scores. The primary limitations of this study were the relatively high attrition rate and residual confounding.

Conclusions

In this study, we observed that parental depression during adolescence was associated with adverse offspring cognitive development assessed up to 6 years later. These findings highlight the intergenerational association between depression in parents and cognitive development across the early life course into adolescence.

Carfilzomib, lenalidomide, dexamethasone, and cyclophosphamide (KRdc) as induction therapy for transplant-eligible, newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients (Myeloma XI+): Interim analysis of an open-label randomised controlled trial

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Graham H. Jackson, Charlotte Pawlyn, David A. Cairns, Ruth M. de Tute, Anna Hockaday, Corinne Collett, John R. Jones, Bhuvan Kishore, Mamta Garg, Cathy D. Williams, Kamaraj Karunanithi, Jindriska Lindsay, Alberto Rocci, John A. Snowden, Matthew W. Jenner, Gordon Cook, Nigel H. Russell, Mark T. Drayson, Walter M. Gregory, Martin F. Kaiser, Roger G. Owen, Faith E. Davies, Gareth J. Morgan, the UK NCRI Haemato-oncology Clinical Studies Group

Background

Carfilzomib is a second-generation irreversible proteasome inhibitor that is efficacious in the treatment of myeloma and carries less risk of peripheral neuropathy than first-generation proteasome inhibitors, making it more amenable to combination therapy.

Methods and findings

The Myeloma XI+ trial recruited patients from 88 sites across the UK between 5 December 2013 and 20 April 2016. Patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma eligible for transplantation were randomly assigned to receive the combination carfilzomib, lenalidomide, dexamethasone, and cyclophosphamide (KRdc) or a triplet of lenalidomide, dexamethasone, and cyclophosphamide (Rdc) or thalidomide, dexamethasone, and cyclophosphamide (Tdc). All patients were planned to receive an autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) prior to a randomisation between lenalidomide maintenance and observation. Eligible patients were aged over 18 years and had symptomatic myeloma. The co-primary endpoints for the study were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for KRdc versus the Tdc/Rdc control group by intention to treat. PFS, response, and safety outcomes are reported following a planned interim analysis. The trial is registered (ISRCTN49407852) and has completed recruitment. In total, 1,056 patients (median age 61 years, range 33 to 75, 39.1% female) underwent induction randomisation to KRdc (n = 526) or control (Tdc/Rdc, n = 530). After a median follow-up of 34.5 months, KRdc was associated with a significantly longer PFS than the triplet control group (hazard ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.51–0.76). The median PFS for patients receiving KRdc is not yet estimable, versus 36.2 months for the triplet control group (p < 0.001). Improved PFS was consistent across subgroups of patients including those with genetically high-risk disease. At the end of induction, the percentage of patients achieving at least a very good partial response was 82.3% in the KRdc group versus 58.9% in the control group (odds ratio 4.35, 95% CI 3.19–5.94, p < 0.001). Minimal residual disease negativity (cutoff 4 × 10−5 bone marrow leucocytes) was achieved in 55% of patients tested in the KRdc group at the end of induction, increasing to 75% of those tested after ASCT. The most common adverse events were haematological, with a low incidence of cardiac events. The trial continues to follow up patients to the co-primary endpoint of OS and for planned long-term follow-up analysis. Limitations of the study include a lack of blinding to treatment regimen and that the triplet control regimen did not include a proteasome inhibitor for all patients, which would be considered a current standard of care in many parts of the world.

Conclusions

The KRdc combination was well tolerated and was associated with both an increased percentage of patients achieving at least a very good partial response and a significant PFS benefit compared to immunomodulatory-agent-based triplet therapy.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov ISRCTN49407852.

Clinical outcomes in a primary-level non-communicable disease programme for Syrian refugees and the host population in Jordan: A cohort analysis using routine data

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Éimhín Ansbro, Tobias Homan, David Prieto Merino, Kiran Jobanputra, Jamil Qasem, Shoaib Muhammad, Taissir Fardous, Pablo Perel

Background

Little is known about the content or quality of non-communicable disease (NCD) care in humanitarian settings. Since 2014, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has provided primary-level NCD services in Irbid, Jordan, targeting Syrian refugees and vulnerable Jordanians who struggle to access NCD care through the overburdened national health system. This retrospective cohort study explored programme and patient-level patterns in achievement of blood pressure and glycaemic control, patterns in treatment interruption, and the factors associated with these patterns.

Methods and findings

The MSF multidisciplinary, primary-level NCD programme provided facility-based care for cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease using context-adapted guidelines and generic medications. Generalist physicians managed patients with the support of family medicine specialists, nurses, health educators, pharmacists, and psychosocial and home care teams. Among the 5,045 patients enrolled between December 2014 and December 2017, 4,044 eligible adult patients were included in our analysis, of whom 72% (2,913) had hypertension and 63% (2,546) had type II diabetes. Using visits as the unit of analysis, we plotted the following on a monthly basis: mean blood pressure among hypertensive patients, mean fasting blood glucose and HbA1c among type II diabetic patients, the proportion of each group achieving control, mean days of delayed appointment attendance, and the proportion of patients experiencing a treatment interruption. Results are presented from programmatic and patient perspectives (using months since programme initiation and months since cohort entry/diagnosis, respectively). General linear mixed models explored factors associated with clinical control and with treatment interruption. Mean age was 58.5 years, and 60.1% (2,432) were women. Within the programme’s first 6 months, mean systolic blood pressure decreased by 12.4 mm Hg from 143.9 mm Hg (95% CI 140.9 to 146.9) to 131.5 mm Hg (95% CI 130.2 to 132.9) among hypertensive patients, while fasting glucose improved by 1.12 mmol/l, from 10.75 mmol/l (95% CI 10.04 to 11.47) to 9.63 mmol/l (95% CI 9.22 to 10.04), among type II diabetic patients. The probability of achieving treatment target in a visit was 63%–75% by end of 2017, improving with programme maturation but with notable seasonable variation. The probability of experiencing a treatment interruption declined as the programme matured and with patients’ length of time in the programme. Routine operational data proved useful in evaluating a humanitarian programme in a real-world setting, but were somewhat limited in terms of data quality and completeness. We used intermediate clinical outcomes proven to be strongly associated with hard clinical outcomes (such as death), since we had neither the data nor statistical power to measure hard outcomes.

Conclusions

Good treatment outcomes and reasonable rates of treatment interruption were achieved in a multidisciplinary, primary-level NCD programme in Jordan. Our approach to using continuous programmatic data may be a feasible way for humanitarian organisations to account for the complex and dynamic nature of interventions in unstable humanitarian settings when undertaking routine monitoring and evaluation. We suggest that frequency of patient contact could be reduced without negatively impacting patient outcomes and that season should be taken into account in analysing programme performance.

Effects on childhood infections of promoting safe and hygienic complementary-food handling practices through a community-based programme: A cluster randomised controlled trial in a rural area of The Gambia

Lu, 11/01/2021 - 15:00

by Semira Manaseki-Holland, Buba Manjang, Karla Hemming, James T. Martin, Christopher Bradley, Louise Jackson, Makie Taal, Om Prasad Gautam, Francesca Crowe, Bakary Sanneh, Jeroen Ensink, Tim Stokes, Sandy Cairncross

Background

The Gambia has high rates of under-5 mortality from diarrhoea and pneumonia, peaking during complementary-feeding age. Community-based interventions may reduce complementary-food contamination and disease rates.

Methods and findings

A public health intervention using critical control points and motivational drivers, delivered February–April 2015 in The Gambia, was evaluated in a cluster randomised controlled trial at 6- and 32-month follow-up in September–October 2015 and October–December 2017, respectively. After consent for trial participation and baseline data were collected, 30 villages (clusters) were randomly assigned to intervention or control, stratified by population size and geography. The intervention included a community-wide campaign on days 1, 2, 17, and 25, a reminder visit at 5 months, plus informal community-volunteer home visits. It promoted 5 key complementary-food and 1 key drinking-water safety and hygiene behaviours through performing arts, public meetings, and certifications delivered by a team from local health and village structures to all villagers who attended the activities, to which mothers of 6- to 24-month-old children were specifically invited. Control villages received a 1-day campaign on domestic-garden water use. The background characteristics of mother and clusters (villages) were balanced between the trial arms. Outcomes were measured at 6 and 32 months in a random sample of 21–26 mothers per cluster. There were no intervention or research team visits to villages between 6 and 32 months. The primary outcome was a composite outcome of the number of times key complementary-food behaviours were observed as a proportion of the number of opportunities to perform the behaviours during the observation period at 6 months. Secondary outcomes included the rate of each recommended behaviour; microbiological growth from complementary food and drinking water (6 months only); and reported acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, and diarrhoea hospitalisation. Analysis was by intention-to-treat analysis adjusted by clustering. (Registration: PACTR201410000859336). We found that 394/571 (69%) of mothers with complementary-feeding children in the intervention villages were actively involved in the campaign. No villages withdrew, and there were no changes in the implementation of the intervention. The intervention improved behaviour adoption significantly. For the primary outcome, the rate was 662/4,351(incidence rate [IR] = 0.15) in control villages versus 2,861/4,378 (IR = 0.65) in intervention villages (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] = 4.44, 95% CI 3.62–5.44, p < 0.001), and at 32 months the aIRR was 1.17 (95% CI 1.07–1.29, p = 0.001). Secondary health outcomes also improved with the intervention: (1) mother-reported diarrhoea at 6 months, with adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 0.39 (95% CI 0.32–0.48, p < 0.001), and at 32 months, with aRR = 0.68 (95% CI 0.48–0.96, p = 0.027); (2) mother-reported diarrhoea hospitalisation at 6 months, with aRR = 0.35 (95% CI 0.19–0.66, p = 0.001), and at 32 months, with aRR = 0.38 (95% CI 0.18–0.80, p = 0.011); and (3) mother-reported acute respiratory tract infections at 6 months, with aRR = 0.67 (95% CI 0.53–0.86, p = 0.001), though at 32 months improvement was not significant (p = 0.200). No adverse events were reported. The main limitations were that only medium to small rural villages were involved. Obtaining laboratory cultures from food at 32 months was not possible, and no stool microorganisms were investigated.

Conclusions

We found that low-cost and culturally embedded behaviour change interventions were acceptable to communities and led to short- and long-term improvements in complementary-food safety and hygiene practices, and reported diarrhoea and acute respiratory tract infections.

Trial registration

The trial was registered on the 17th October 2014 with the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry in South Africa with number (PACTR201410000859336) and 32-month follow-up as an amendment to the trial.

Correction: The World Health Organization Fetal Growth Charts: A Multinational Longitudinal Study of Ultrasound Biometric Measurements and Estimated Fetal Weight

Gi, 07/01/2021 - 15:00

by Torvid Kiserud, Gilda Piaggio, Guillermo Carroli, Mariana Widmer, José Carvalho, Lisa Neerup Jensen, Daniel Giordano, José Guilherme Cecatti, Hany Abdel Aleem, Sameera A. Talegawkar, Alexandra Benachi, Anke Diemert, Antoinette Tshefu Kitoto, Jadsada Thinkhamrop, Pisake Lumbiganon, Ann Tabor, Alka Kriplani, Rogelio Gonzalez Perez, Kurt Hecher, Mark A. Hanson, A. Metin Gülmezoglu, Lawrence D. Platt

Associations between breast cancer survivorship and adverse mental health outcomes: A matched population-based cohort study in the United Kingdom

Gi, 07/01/2021 - 15:00

by Helena Carreira, Rachael Williams, Garth Funston, Susannah Stanway, Krishnan Bhaskaran

Background

Breast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed in women globally, and 5-year net survival probabilities in high-income countries are generally >80%. A cancer diagnosis and treatment are often traumatic events, and many women struggle to cope during this period. Less is known, however, about the long-term mental health impact of the disease, despite many women living several years beyond their breast cancer and mental health being a major source of disability in modern societies. The objective of this study was to quantify the risk of several adverse mental health–related outcomes in women with a history of breast cancer followed in primary care in the United Kingdom National Health Service, compared to similar women who never had cancer.

Methods and findings

We conducted a matched cohort study using data routinely collected in primary care across the UK to quantify associations between breast cancer history and depression, anxiety, and other mental health–related outcomes. All women with incident breast cancer in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD primary care database between 1988 and 2018 (N = 57,571, mean = 62 ± 14 years) were matched 1:4 to women with no prior cancer (N = 230,067) based on age, primary care practice, and eligibility of the data for linkage to hospital data sources. Cox models were used to estimate associations between breast cancer survivorship and each mental health–related outcome, further adjusting for diabetes, body mass index (BMI), and smoking and drinking status at baseline. Breast cancer survivorship was positively associated with anxiety (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29–1.36; p < 0.001), depression (1.35; 1.32–1.38; p < 0.001), sexual dysfunction (1.27; 1.17–1.38; p < 0.001), and sleep disorder (1.68; 1.63–1.73; p < 0.001), but not with cognitive dysfunction (1.00; 0.97–1.04; p = 0.88). Positive associations were also found for fatigue (HR = 1.28; 1.25–1.31; p < 0.001), pain (1.22; 1.20–1.24; p < 0.001), receipt of opioid analgesics (1.86; 1.83–1.90; p < 0.001), and fatal and nonfatal self-harm (1.15; 0.97–1.36; p = 0.11), but CI was wide, and the relationship was not statistically significant for the latter. HRs for anxiety and depression decreased over time (p-interaction <0.001), but increased risks persisted for 2 and 4 years, respectively, after cancer diagnosis. Increased levels of pain and sleep disorder persisted for 10 years. Younger age was associated with larger HRs for depression, cognitive dysfunction, pain, opioid analgesics use, and sleep disorders (p-interaction <0.001 in each case). Limitations of the study include the potential for residual confounding by lifestyle factors and detection bias due to cancer survivors having greater healthcare contact.

Conclusions

In this study, we observed that compared to women with no prior cancer, breast cancer survivors had higher risk of anxiety, depression, sleep problems, sexual dysfunction, fatigue, receipt of opioid analgesics, and pain. Relative risks estimates tended to decrease over time, but anxiety and depression were significantly increased for 2 and 4 years after breast cancer diagnosis, respectively, while associations for fatigue, pain, and sleep disorders were elevated for at least 5–10 years after diagnosis. Early diagnosis and increased awareness among patients, healthcare professionals, and policy makers are likely to be important to mitigate the impacts of these raised risks.

Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes: Lessons to date and the future of taxation

Gi, 07/01/2021 - 15:00

by Barry M. Popkin, Shu Wen Ng